History shows major quake possible in Seoul

Elementary school students, with schoolbags on their heads, take shelter on the ground during an earthquake drill at Songjung Elementary School in Seoul, Friday. The drill was held after the country was recently hit by a series of earthquakes. Historical documents suggest that stronger quakes occurred across the country, including Seoul and its surrounding area. 


Government urged to plot seismic fault lines across nation
The government has come under growing pressure to draw up long-term preemptive, comprehensive measures to prepare for possible major earthquakes in and around Seoul.

The heavily-populated capital and its satellite cities could be vulnerable to strong tremors, according to historical documents.

Experts say the government must conduct a thorough study to plot all seismic fault lines nationwide, including the capital region, which would suffer enormous damage if hit by a major quake.

“Historical documents show that there are also major fault lines in the Seoul area. The government needs to conduct a long-term study ― maybe for 20 to 30 years ― to determine the possibilities of earthquakes,” said Kang Tae-seob, a professor at the Department of Earth and Environmental Science at Pukyong National University.

A magnitude 5.8 earthquake that hit Korea’s southern regions last week was the strongest one in the history of the country’s modern seismic observations, but not in the history of the nation.

Historical documents suggest that stronger quakes occurred across the country, including Seoul and its surrounding area. Based on the description, experts believe the magnitude of some quakes was above eight.

According to the Korean Meteorologist Administration’s (KMA) Historical Earthquake Records in Korea, which was made based on historical texts, including one on Goryeo (918-1392) and The History and Annals of the Joseon Dynasty (1392-1910), there were 15 quakes of a magnitude 8 or higher over the past 2,000 years.

According to the records, a major earthquake occurred in 1518, affecting all eight provinces, including Seoul. The documents state, “The roof tiles on the Imperial Ancestral Temple fell, and the palace walls collapsed. Numerous residences collapsed, and men and women of all ages gathered outside their homes to avoid being crushed to death.

“People and horses were bewildered, and many people fainted. Residences collapsed, and pottery inexplicably fell and shattered. The ground shook repeatedly throughout the night.”

Kyung Jae-bok, an earth science scholar at Korea National University of Education, reckons that the magnitude of the tremor at that time was at least 6, given that it was felt in most parts of Korea. He warned that Seoul and its surrounding areas should not be considered safe from further quakes.

In 1613, another major quake struck the capital region. The record says, “The thunderous earthquake occurred before daybreak, and numerous residences collapsed.”

“Several hundred prisoners heard the thunderous earthquake and screamed, ‘The heaven knows of our suffering,’” it said.

The value of historical earthquake records is significant and should be utilized for assessing seismic trends and risks for the future, the KMA said.

With concerns over further seismic activity growing fast, one of the biggest issues facing the country is a shortage of experts.

The Ministry of Public Safety and Security has only two seismologists, and the KMA and the National Disaster Management Research Institute are in a similar situation.

In a country that rarely experienced big quakes until recently, few people opt to study the field and there are few jobs for them.

Only dozens of Korean scholars reportedly attend academic conferences in the field on a regular basis. The ministry’s budget for quakes this year is a paltry 1 billion won ($900,000).

According to the Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources, Korea has at least 25 confirmed active fault lines, which are likely to become the source of another earthquake sometime in the future. But the organization believes there are at least 450.


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