MENLO PARK -- A new
report says there is a high probability that a magnitude 6.7 or larger
earthquake could strike somewhere in the Bay Area between now and 2043.
Researchers at the Menlo Park campus of the U.S. Geological Survey
recently issued the report in large part to prompt residents to prepare
for a possible disaster. The report (http://
bit.ly/BayQuakeRpt) states there is a 72 percent likelihood that a big quake will hit the region within 30 years.
"We wanted to put something out for the general public that was
readable and understandable," said USGS research geologist David
Schwartz.
The most recent statewide quake forecast, which the new report is
based on, was released in 2014 and for the first time factored in
"unknown faults" as well as how faults interact with one another.
"This is the first time we've put out a map like this, that has
essentially all the faults we think can produce earthquakes in the
region," Schwartz said, acknowledging there might be other faults that
have not been identified.
An earlier study in 2003 found there was a 62 percent probability
of a 6.7 magnitude or larger quake striking the Bay Area by 2032. The
last quake that caused major damage in California was the 1994
Northridge temblor, which struck near Los Angeles, killing 57 people,
injuring nearly 9,000 and causing tens of billions in damages.
Schwartz said USGS geologists continue trying to predict where on a
fault line a quake will occur and how to alert the public as soon as
possible that one is on the way. Quakes occur in waves, with the first
wave causing no damage. Seismographs can pick up that first wave to try
to determine how far behind the next, potentially damaging wave is and
how high the magnitude will be.
"The goal is to help individuals," Schwartz said. "You'll have an
app on your phone and it will go off. The challenge is to get people to
know how to respond once that alert goes off."
http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_30099939/menlo-park-72-chance-big-quake-within-30
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