Thoughts on NEPAL: Considering just a few days ahead.

Nepal today this morning at 05:49 UTC got a 4.4R just 29km NW of Kathmandu. The closeness of this to the Capital is worrying many people. An earthquake near the Kathmandu always reminds people the losses they uncured from the last one in 2015.  At the same time there have been published research papers in Earthquake Journals such as 'Nature Geoscience' that the previous major event in 2015 has not released all the stress and therefore in the future we are bound to experience another. The word 'unavoidable' is used. The stated publications, leave us with a conclusion that the whole mix there, near Kathmandu, is ready for further earthquake releases. We do not get any information as to when. In order to get such information we start differently, in that we aim to determine such answers as WHEN WHERE HOW STRONG by using what we call FORWARD INDICATORS. Any statistics tool usually gives a LAGGING indication. For example MOVING AVERAGES is a lagging indicator. We use tools which look forward into the future. One such tool is based on Fibonacci Number Theory and the System Entropy which we base our prediction system. Our research therefore tries to look ahead, uses phenomena EMBEDDED in our NATURE such as Fibonacci Numbers. The appearance of Fibonacci Numbers remain to be explained based on hard Physics, but they are amazingly powerful to use. We have shown the planetary link of earthquakes and we have published this. We link old earthquakes to new ones as in the whole solar system one planet depends on the other, and as earthquakes happen on Earth, earthquakes happen to other planets! As we know and we determine accurately the future position of planets we know the onset of earthquake forces, which can lead to earthquakes.
Our prediction system although experimental under study, by openly running the results in here, we have the honesty to show people our predictions in the whole truth, BEFORE, at the start of the MONTH and this way OPENLY for people to see our results, not cooked by some clever stats or other massaged one off publications. We show people in here every month what we predict and what we get. This is worth 100  publications, as it is assessed by all of you, thousands read us, as for its usefulness. Our system has not yet reached where we want it to be. Sometimes we do not predict correctly and we can get what we call false alarms and misses. We are working towards improvements. Our vision is earthquake prediction report to be a normal daily/weekly report on TV informing people. Like the weather report. People should not be terrified but prepared to cope as often natural phenomena are impossible to stop. But it is always better to be informed than not. People will be tolerant to the fact that it is not yet perfect, like weather reports, they are not always accurate.
Back to Nepal, our System shows as published that we also expect an event on 25th June. This talented Nepalese young man Pushkar Regmi (and I hope he is appreciated as an IT expert), has helped me put together this simple plot showing where our software predicts the location of this event. The assumption is of course that IF it happens on the date stated then this is where we predict it can happen.

Looking more carefully the Nepal system, we need to filter out which ones of the many dots are not likely. First, we find that the likelihood of the predicted event is either 1) just before the 25th or 2) just after the 25th as follows:

Case a)
WHEN: 24th June 2016, TIME 15:50 UTC 
WHERE: We estimate the location to be at (28.39N, 84.01E), NE of Kathmandu.
This is shown in the red circle in the map above.

Case b)
WHEN: 26th June 2016, TIME 23:03 UTC
WHERE: We estimate the location to be at (28.39N, 85.14E), N of Kathmandu.
This is shown in the blue circle  in the map above.


So, one of those events is likely according to our method. We have no time to dwell further to see which one is most likely. Probably the second case is more likely but we have not fully examined it.

Would today's (21-6-16) earthquake affect the magnitude of the earthquake? I think today's earthquake helps reduce the magnitude. If it happens, on the 26th say it would have been stronger I think, if today's earthquake had not come. So in view of this I expect a similar magnitude to today's.

Longer Term: Our method shows that Nepal will get a few strong shakes this year, in July and  in August especially in August very strong earthquakes. We will try to post in here in advance.

This will do for now, until our next report.

Be Safe Be Good, never panic, use head, remembering that this is research output.

You can read our methodology here.

Disclaimer

Magnitude

	ML 4.4
Region	NEPAL
Date time	2016-06-21 05:49:30.0 UTC
Location	27.93 N ; 85.21 E
Depth	10 km
Distances	28 km NW of Kathmandu, Nepal / pop: 1,442,271 / local time: 11:34:30.0 2016-06-21 440 km W of Thimphu, Bhutan / pop: 98,676 / local time: 11:49:30.0 2016-06-21 700 km NW of Dhaka, Bangladesh / pop: 10,356,500 / local time: 11:49:30.0 2016-06-21