Since I was asked to be a little more detailed, here is a little analysis of what I can understand from our methods, regarding tomorrow in Nepal.
1. WHEN?
If we have a look at the June Earthquake Prediction Calendar for Nepal, we have tomorrow a small peak. Therefore our system indicates we may get an event. Please note this could come today, tomorrow or the day after. (Since the peak is tomorrow, and the +-1 day rule). Having established this, if it comes tomorrow, -2nd June-we expect it at around 10:15 GMT.
2. WHERE?
We run our software and we can get the locations of possible events according to our method, as follows:
1) (28N 82.44E) (Green on the map)
2) (28N 83.3E) (Red on the map)
3) (28N 84.58E) (Blue on the map)
4) (28N 85.16) (Red on the map far right)
Preliminary work shows the location can be off up to 1 degree, maybe less, we will see, IF it comes.
The above locations are calculated on the assumption the event comes tomorrow, otherwie the location and time may not be accurate or wrong. Only one of the possible coordinates is near Katmandu, but I have had no time to check the details of the other locations.
3. HOW STRONG?
We do not expect more than 4.5R. In fact there should be stronger earthquakes around the world tomorrow and Nepal is not one of them, but as discussed, it can be up to 4.5R according to our method.
Other indicators/precursors such as CO emissions are not alarming and therefore they indicate a minor event. I know the calendar peak is not so small, but that is all we can say based on our methods for now.
Having said all the above, we would like you to read our disclaimer, and our work is based primarily on our methodology which is also at the end. There is NO NEED to PANIC and this is ABSOLUTELY the wrong thing to do. We always recommend to listen to what the Nepal National Siesmological Centre says, as they do as always a very good job and their advise is primary, and their advise should be listened to.
Be Safe, Be Good!
You can read our methodology here.
Disclaimer
1. WHEN?
If we have a look at the June Earthquake Prediction Calendar for Nepal, we have tomorrow a small peak. Therefore our system indicates we may get an event. Please note this could come today, tomorrow or the day after. (Since the peak is tomorrow, and the +-1 day rule). Having established this, if it comes tomorrow, -2nd June-we expect it at around 10:15 GMT.
2. WHERE?
We run our software and we can get the locations of possible events according to our method, as follows:
1) (28N 82.44E) (Green on the map)
2) (28N 83.3E) (Red on the map)
3) (28N 84.58E) (Blue on the map)
4) (28N 85.16) (Red on the map far right)
Preliminary work shows the location can be off up to 1 degree, maybe less, we will see, IF it comes.
The above locations are calculated on the assumption the event comes tomorrow, otherwie the location and time may not be accurate or wrong. Only one of the possible coordinates is near Katmandu, but I have had no time to check the details of the other locations.
3. HOW STRONG?
We do not expect more than 4.5R. In fact there should be stronger earthquakes around the world tomorrow and Nepal is not one of them, but as discussed, it can be up to 4.5R according to our method.
Other indicators/precursors such as CO emissions are not alarming and therefore they indicate a minor event. I know the calendar peak is not so small, but that is all we can say based on our methods for now.
Having said all the above, we would like you to read our disclaimer, and our work is based primarily on our methodology which is also at the end. There is NO NEED to PANIC and this is ABSOLUTELY the wrong thing to do. We always recommend to listen to what the Nepal National Siesmological Centre says, as they do as always a very good job and their advise is primary, and their advise should be listened to.
Be Safe, Be Good!
Disclaimer
Magnitude ML 4.4
ReplyDeleteRegion NEPAL
Date time 2016-06-02 23:25:30.0 UTC
Location 27.96 N ; 85.62 E
Depth 10 km
Good prediction.. Keep us updated!
ReplyDeleteGood Prediction. Keep us updated!
ReplyDelete