Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Cyclone Formation near the coast of India!

Together with the CO emissions map below we can see the cyclone forming over India today.
Here is the warning issued in the Naval oceanography Portal:

WTIO21 PGTW 172300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6N 81.3E TO 15.6N 82.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 171800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9N 81.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 
81.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 81.4E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
A 172010Z AMSR2 89GHZ PASS DEPICT PERSISTENT, DEEPENING CONVECTION 
NEAR AND AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE BROAD 
CIRCULATION EXHIBITS THE BROAD STRUCTURE OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION BUT 
IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING. POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE, AND 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE BUT DECREASING. PASSAGE OVER WARM 
WATER AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE BAY OF 
BENGAL WILL SUPPORT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS ASSESSMENT IS SUPPORTED BY MULTIPLE 
NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 999 MB. BASED ON RECENT CONSOLIDATION AND FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
182300Z.//
NNNN
 
http://www.usno.navy.mil/++contextportlets++plone.rightcolumn/jtwc-tropical-cyclone-information-feed/full_feed 
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